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1. | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS |
1.1. | Purpose of this report |
1.2. | Overall conclusions |
1.3. | Urban vs inter-city: buses vs trucks |
1.4. | Powertrain options for buses and trucks |
1.5. | Pure electric vehicle viability vs energy storage kWh in bus/truck 2010-2040 |
1.6. | Battery parameters in pure electric buses and trucks 2019 |
1.7. | China - extra $1 billion battery market for school buses? |
1.8. | Choosing energy storage for buses and trucks: lithium-ion batteries dominate |
1.9. | Energy density improvement of energy storage systems by storage type 2019-2029 |
1.10. | Battery replacement: supercapacitor viability vs capacity kWh in bus/truck 2010-2040 |
1.11. | Less battery: supercapacitor, fuel cell combinations |
1.12. | Less battery: dynamically charged then energy independent electric buses and trucks |
1.13. | Less battery: the Class 8 truck battle between fuel cells and batteries |
1.14. | Market forecast 2019-2029 |
1.14.1. | Hybrid and pure electric buses and trucks: numbers (thousand) 2019-2029 |
1.14.2. | Hybrid and pure electric buses and trucks: unit (kWh) 2019-2029 |
1.14.3. | Hybrid and pure electric buses and trucks: gross (million kWh) 2019-2029 |
1.14.4. | Hybrid and pure electric buses and trucks: total battery market value ($ billion) 2019-2029 |
1.14.5. | LDV truck - Market forecasts (GWh) 2019-2029 |
1.14.6. | LDV truck - Market forecasts (GWh) by battery chemistry 2019-2029 |
1.14.7. | MDV/HDV truck - Market forecasts (GWh) 2019-2029 |
1.14.8. | MDV/HDV truck - Market forecasts (GWh) by battery chemistry 2019-2029 |
1.14.9. | E-truck forecasts by powertrain in California |
1.14.10. | China commercial vehicle sales EV vs ICE 2008-2017 |
1.14.11. | North America bus sales breakdown 2009-2017 |
2. | INTRODUCTION |
2.1. | Electric buses and light electric EVs: future urban mobility |
2.2. | Upcoming restrictions for commercial vehicles push electrification |
2.3. | Transport of people 2025 |
2.4. | Urban pollution |
2.4.1. | Types |
2.4.2. | Emissions cause much more injury than previously realised |
2.4.3. | CO2 emission from road transport |
2.4.4. | CO2 emission limits enacted worldwide to 2025 |
2.5. | Why go electric? Drivers of truck electrification |
2.6. | Battery choices: |
2.6.1. | Comparison of specific energy and energy density of various battery systems |
2.7. | Cost projections in selected countries for various powertrains |
2.8. | Economic viability of several zero-emission technologies |
2.9. | Powertrain cost comparison |
2.9.1. | China |
2.9.2. | Europe |
2.9.3. | USA |
2.10. | Advantages and disadvantages of electric vs. fuel cell trucks |
2.11. | Battery capacity vs gross vehicle weight |
2.12. | Battery capacity vs passenger-range |
2.13. | Passenger capacity vs e-bus weight |
2.14. | Battle between fuel cell and battery |
2.14.1. | Overview |
2.14.2. | Nikola fuel cell hybrid or Tesla battery truck? |
2.14.3. | Are Li-ion batteries viable for long-haul? |
2.14.4. | Short haul Class 8 pure electric trucks |
2.14.5. | Some medium sized fleets of fuel cell vehicles deployed |
2.14.6. | Primary problems between battery and fuel cell on-road vehicles |
2.14.7. | Batteries vs fuel cells - cost |
2.14.8. | Batteries vs. fuel cells - efficiency |
3. | BUSES AND THEIR ENERGY STORAGE |
3.1. | Focus of this chapter |
3.2. | Types of bus |
3.3. | Population rises, cities dominate, parking unsustainable |
3.4. | Why adopt buses? |
3.5. | Why go electric? |
3.5.1. | Drivers of bus electrification |
3.5.2. | Emissions cause much more injury than previously realised |
3.5.3. | Benefits of pure electric bus powertrains and to some extent hybrid |
3.6. | Examples of leadership: focus on pure electric now |
3.7. | Bus powertrain trend, value chain rewritten |
3.7.1. | Powertrain trend |
3.7.2. | Value chain rewritten |
3.8. | Buses 2010-2030: an industry reborn |
3.9. | Market drivers |
3.9.1. | Prosperity collides with urbanisation |
3.9.2. | Changes in society and technology feed off each other |
3.10. | Traction batteries |
3.11. | Traction supercapacitors for hybrid buses |
3.12. | Traction supercapacitors for pure electric buses |
3.13. | Charging the battery |
3.13.1. | Overview |
3.13.2. | Example: ABB TOSA: |
3.13.3. | Contactless charging |
3.14. | Towards energy independence: increasing bus range |
3.15. | Energy Independent Electric Vehicles EIV |
3.15.1. | Disruptive |
3.15.2. | Energy independent electric bus: NFH-H microbus China |
3.15.3. | Energy positive large buses will come |
3.16. | League table of EV manufacturers 2018 $ billion: winners make buses |
3.17. | China buses go global: cost advantages |
3.17.1. | China cost advantage plotted |
3.17.2. | How can bus manufacturers outside China compete? |
3.18. | Cheaper to buy is the killer blow for adoption of pure electric buses 2022 onwards |
3.19. | Technologies important for |
3.20. | Bus technology timeline 2018-2040 |
3.21. | Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2019 |
3.22. | Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2020 |
3.23. | Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2021 |
3.24. | Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2022 |
3.25. | Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2023/2024 |
3.26. | Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2025/2026 |
3.27. | Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2027/2028 |
3.28. | Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2030 |
3.29. | Proliferations of bus types and crossovers |
3.30. | Record bus range |
4. | TRUCKS AND THEIR ENERGY STORAGE |
4.1. | The worldwide freight transport industry |
4.1.1. | Multi-modal |
4.1.2. | Freight transport on roads |
4.1.3. | Truck classifications |
4.1.4. | Different segments of goods transportation by land |
4.1.5. | Characteristics of popular on-road trucks |
4.2. | Electrification of trucks |
4.2.1. | Market dynamics |
4.2.2. | Electric powertrain options for trucks |
4.2.3. | Benefits from truck and van electrification |
4.2.4. | More carrot, more stick |
4.2.5. | Value chain rewritten |
4.2.6. | Ramping up electric trucks |
4.2.7. | Pure electric vehicle adoption dynamics |
4.2.8. | TEVA / JAC example of hybrid |
4.2.9. | 48V mild hybrid |
4.2.10. | Small trucks / vans go straight to pure electric |
4.2.11. | Specialty vehicle electrification |
4.3. | Need for a systems approach |
4.4. | Hybrid upfit system for trucks |
4.5. | Design issues: battery minimisation |
4.6. | Top truck manufacturers 2017 |
5. | LITHIUM-ION BATTERIES |
5.1. | Basic operation of a Li-ion cell |
5.2. | Current challenges facing automotive Li-ion batteries |
5.3. | The main components of a battery cell |
5.4. | Lithium-ion battery components, functions, and main materials |
5.5. | Lithium-ion battery cell, module and pack |
5.6. | Cost analysis for automotive Li-ion batteries |
5.7. | Mapping: top electric bus manufacturers and Li-ion battery pack suppliers |
5.8. | Examples of top electric buses, battery type and performance |
5.9. | LIB cell cost ($/kWh) forecasts according to IDTechEx |
5.10. | The world is building gigafactories |
5.10.1. | LIB production forecasts (GWh/year) |
5.10.2. | LIB production forecasts - electric vehicles |
5.10.3. | LIB production forecasts - other markets |
5.11. | LIB market forecasts ($B/year) |
5.12. | LIB standard chemistries in 2018, 2023, and 2028 |
5.13. | What does 1 kilowatthour (kWh) look like? |
5.14. | Commercial battery packaging technologies |
5.14.1. | Comparison of commercial battery packaging technologies |
5.15. | Cooling systems for LIBs |
5.16. | Push and pull factors in Li-ion research |
5.17. | The battery trilemma |
5.18. | A quote from Thomas Edison on batteries |
5.19. | Performance goes up, cost goes down |
5.20. | Li-ion raw materials in perspective |
5.21. | LTO - Toshiba |
5.22. | Anode alternatives - silicon, tin and alloying materials |
5.23. | Cathode recap |
5.24. | Li-ion battery cathode recap |
5.25. | Inactive materials negatively affect energy density |
5.26. | Comparison between inorganic and polymer electrolytes |
5.27. | Lithium-ion batteries vs. Solid-State batteries |
5.28. | Critical aspects of solid electrolytes |
5.29. | Solid electrolytes - Toyota Motors |
5.30. | Ways to get above 250 Wh/kg |
5.31. | LGChem's view of future batteries |
5.32. | Li-ion vs. future Li-ion vs. beyond Li-ion |
5.33. | A family tree of batteries - Li-ion |
5.34. | Benchmarking of theoretical battery performance |
5.35. | Benchmarking of practical battery performance |
5.36. | Battery technology benchmark - Comparison chart |
5.37. | Battery technology benchmark - open challenges |
5.38. | Rapid scale-up with rapid change of product spells trouble |
5.39. | Safety |
5.40. | EVs catching fire get media attention, but ICEs are not immune to that either |
5.41. | Battery choices at MAN Truck & Bus |
5.42. | Bosch and batteries for trucks |
5.43. | GVI - battery packs for delivery trucks |
5.44. | EnerDel - battery packs for trucks |
6. | SUPERCAPACITORS |
6.1. | Types of capacitor |
6.2. | Supercapacitors |
6.3. | Nomenclature and benefits |
6.4. | Improvements that will create large new markets |
6.4.1. | Prioritisation |
6.4.2. | Device active structures and gaps in the market |
6.4.3. | The dream for supercapacitors and their derivatives: power & energy |
6.4.4. | Other planned benefits |
6.4.5. | Better supercapacitors a real prospect from 2019 research |
6.4.6. | Electrolyte-electrode routes to desirable supercapacitor parameters |
6.5. | Example of supercapacitors in heavy trucks |
6.6. | Iveco and supercapacitors - a cost perspective |
6.7. | Structural electronics: load bearing supercapacitors |
7. | FUEL CELLS |
7.1. | Fuel cell vehicles will never be mainstream |
7.2. | Status in 2019 |
7.3. | Fuel cells are dead. Long live fuel cells! |
7.4. | The need for long range beyond range extenders |
7.5. | Nikola Trucks |
7.5.1. | Winning the zero emission Class 8 orders |
7.5.2. | Nikola and Bosch partnership |
7.6. | Ballard |
7.6.1. | Ballard and Kenworth |
7.6.2. | Ballard in UPS Delivery Van Trial California |
7.7. | DHL/Streetscooter also trials fuel cell delivery vans |
7.8. | Keyou |
8. | ANALYSIS OF OVER 140 LITHIUM-BASED RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MANUFACTURERS |
Slides | 257 |
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Forecasts to | 2029 |