Scout Core Measures Scenario Analysis

These data underpin a scenario analysis of U.S. building energy use, emissions, and costs out to 2050 using Scout (scout.energy.gov), a reproducible and granular model of U.S. building energy use developed by the U.S. national labs for the U.S. Department of Energy's Building Technologies Office.

The scenario analysis explores uncertainty in the progression of both U.S. energy demand- and supply-side conditions that affect U.S. building energy use and CO₂ emissions out to 2050. For electric power supply, we consider two levels: one corresponding to the 2018 AEO reference case ("RB"), and another corresponding to the 2018 AEO $25 carbon allowance fee side case ("HR"), which achieves a high level of renewable electricity penetration---approximately 45% of total power generation by 2050. Three different sets of energy conservation measures (ECMs) are considered across the scenarios. The performance guidelines ECM set ("1T") includes currently available technologies that meet existing codes and/or voluntary recognition programs (e.g., ENERGY STAR). The best available ECM package ("2T'') includes the most efficient commercially-available technologies per EIA data and other sources. The prospective ECM package ("3T'') includes research-grade technologies that could be released over the next decade as outlined by the U.S. Department of Energy's Building Technologies Office Multi-Year Program Plan. Finally, we explore two levels of technology switching from on-site fossil fuels to electricity: the basic level ("FS0'') introduces fuel switching without any incentives; and the incentivized level ("FS20'') reduces the installed cost of fuel switching measures by 20%.